The thirteen seats up for election in Uttar Pradesh during the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections include constituencies that hold significance for the Samajwadi Party, such as Kannauj and Etawah. However, in the past two general elections, the BJP has secured victory in all these seats except Kannauj, which was won by the SP’s Dimple Yadav in 2014.
The BJP aims to replicate its previous successes, particularly in seats of importance to the SP like Kannauj and Etawah. In Lakhimpur Kheri, where the BJP is fielding Ajay Mishra ‘Teni’ again, the party hopes to capitalize on his candidacy despite controversy surrounding him. Teni, the son of Union Minister of State for Home, is facing allegations related to a farmers’ protest incident in 2021. At a recent public event, Union Home Minister Amit Shah indicated support for Teni, suggesting that if he wins, he will be promoted significantly.
These 13 seats, including five reserved for specific categories, have a significant voter base comprising Dalits, OBCs (Other Backward Classes), and Muslims.
In Kannauj, the BJP secured 49.37% of the votes in 2019, with the runner-up receiving 48.29%. This constituency holds significance as SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is contesting for the fourth time, having previously won in 2000, 2004, and 2009. Rahul Gandhi from the Congress and Sanjay Singh from the Aam Aadmi Party campaigned for Akhilesh towards the end of the race.
Akhilesh is facing off against BJP’s Subrat Pathak, who defeated Dimple Yadav in 2019. Initially, BJP leaders expected an easy win for Pathak until Akhilesh entered the race last minute, replacing his nephew Tej Pratap. The BSP’s decision to field Imran Bin Jafar may impact the SP’s share of Muslim and Dalit votes, though Akhilesh is anticipated to attract a significant portion of these groups’ support, along with votes from OBC communities like Pals, Lodhis, and Kurmis.
During campaigning, the SP emphasized an incident involving Pathak and his supporters’ alleged attack on the Mandi police outpost in Kannauj on June 2 last year, purportedly to “rescue” one of his supporters from police custody. The investigation into this incident is ongoing.
Lakhimpur Kheri:
In Lakhimpur Kheri, the BJP won with 53.63% of the votes in 2019, while the runner-up secured 34.38%. Here, Teni from the BJP is contesting against the SP’s Utkarsh Verma and the BSP’s Anshay Kalra. Despite pressure for Teni’s resignation following the farmer protest deaths, the BJP maintained its support for him, given his electoral success since the 2012 Assembly polls.
Although Teni’s son Ashish was briefly incarcerated after the incident, he is currently out on bail granted by the Supreme Court. Additionally, the BJP swept all five Assembly seats falling within the Kheri Lok Sabha constituency in the 2022 Assembly elections.
Both the SP and BSP highlighted the 2021 incident in their campaigns, but their candidates are perceived as unlikely to challenge Teni’s standing. Verma, who lost in the 2022 Assembly elections, is contesting his first Lok Sabha polls. His primary support base would likely be the Muslim vote, alongside OBC backing, particularly from Kurmi communities.
BSP’s Candidate in Lakhimpur Kheri:
Kalra from the BSP is a first-time contender in elections and is considered an “outsider” due to his background as a businessman with operations primarily in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). His selection is aimed at appealing to the Sikh community in the constituency, constituting about 2% of the population, who played a prominent role in the recent farm protests. Kalra also aims to garner support from the Dalit voter base.
Etawah (SC-reserved):
Etawah, a reserved constituency, encompasses Saifai, the ancestral village of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav. Although symbolically significant for the SP, which secured victories here in 1996, 1999, 2004, and 2009, the BJP emerged victorious in 2014 and 2019. In 1991, the winning candidate from Etawah was BSP founder Kanshi Ram.
The BJP has nominated Ram Shanker Katheria, a previous winner in 2014 who was relocated to Agra by the party in 2019. The SP has fielded Jitendra Dohre and the BSP, Sarika Singh.
While Dalits constitute the largest demographic in Etawah, various OBC groups outnumber them, with Yadavs being the most numerous. Additionally, there is a substantial Muslim population in the constituency.
Kanpur:
Kanpur, known as the industrial and commercial hub of Uttar Pradesh, was historically a Congress stronghold, with Shri Prakash Jaiswal winning in 1999, 2004, and 2009. However, BJP veteran Murli Manohar Joshi defeated him in 2014, and in 2019, the victory went to BJP’s Satyadev Pachauri.
Despite Kanpur’s association with the Congress in the past, the party is contesting the seat as part of its alliance with the SP.
The BJP’s candidate is Ramesh Awasthi, facing competition from Congress’s Alok Mishra and BSP’s Kuldeep Bhadauria, all contesting their inaugural Lok Sabha elections.
Both Awasthi and Mishra hail from the Brahmin community, which wields significant influence in the constituency. The BSP has opted for an upper-caste leader, a Kshatriya, reflecting their numerical strength in the area.
Regarding BJP Candidates in Kanpur and Unnao:
Sources indicate that sitting MP Pachauri, a longstanding figure associated with the BJP and RSS, was unlikely to be renominated due to unofficial age restrictions (over 75 years). Prior to any official party announcement, Pachauri personally wrote to BJP president J.P. Nadda requesting to be excused from candidacy. Awasthi, the replacement candidate selected by the BJP, is a former journalist with ties to the RSS.
Alok Mishra is involved in running educational institutions.
In addition to the upper castes, Muslims, Dalits, and OBCs—particularly the Kurmi community—are significantly represented in the constituency.
Akbarpur:
Akbarpur, the administrative center of Kanpur Dehat district and the birthplace of former President Ram Nath Kovind, was previously won by Mayawati in 1998, 1999, and 2004. More recently, the seat has been held by BJP’s Devendra Singh Bhole, who is being fielded again.
Rajaram Pal, a former Congress MP from the seat in 2009, is now the SP candidate. The BSP has nominated Rajesh Dwivedi, a Brahmin, for this election.
OBCs constitute the largest demographic in the constituency, followed by upper castes, Dalits, and Muslims.
Unnao:
The BJP has once again nominated its controversial MP Swami Sachchidanand Hari Sakshi alias Sakshi Maharaj from Unnao. He will face competition from the SP’s Annu Tandon and the BSP’s Ashok Kumar Pandey.
Tandon secured victory in Unnao for the Congress in 2009 but faced defeat in the subsequent 2014 and 2019 elections, won by Sakshi Maharaj. The SP is relying on the popularity of a local party leader who enjoys support from Brahmins and Dalits. Additionally, there is perceived dissatisfaction among Brahmins towards the BJP for not nominating a candidate from their community.
Sakshi Maharaj belongs to the OBC Lodhi community, which holds significant sway in the constituency. He has coined a slogan reflecting his confidence: ‘Dhai lakh Lodhi-Baaki sab Modi (2.5 lakh Lodhis, the rest Modi)’. According to BJP leaders in the area, Sakshi Maharaj is expected to secure Kshatriya and Dalit votes easily for a third consecutive victory.
Farrukhabad:
In Farrukhabad, the BJP has nominated Mukesh Rajput, a member of the Lodh community, which is sizable along with the Shakya community in the constituency. Rajput, who won the seat in the previous two elections, is relying on his caste base as well as factors like support for Modi and the Ram Temple issue.
Rajput faces competition from the SP’s Naval Kishore Shakya, who aims to secure the Shakya vote. The BSP has put forward an upper-caste candidate, Kranti Pandey.
Bahraich (SC-reserved):
Bahraich, a constituency bordering Nepal, has a majority Muslim population followed by OBCs and Dalits. The BJP has fielded Anand Gond, the son of its 2019 winning candidate, Akshaybar Lal Gond.
Given that this region is prone to flooding due to water released from Nepal, and with over 89% of the population residing in rural areas, farmers play a crucial role in the elections here.
Shahjahanpur (SC-reserved):
Previously a Congress stronghold until 2014, Shahjahanpur saw successive victories by Jitendra Prasada and his son Jitin. Jitin, now with the BJP, is contesting from Pilibhit. The seat was later won by the SP before the BJP secured it in 2014.
Suresh Khanna, the Finance Minister in the Adityanath government and close to the CM, hails from this district. BJP candidate Arun Kumar Sagar is up against the SP’s Jyotsana Gond and the BSP’s Dodram Verma.
The BJP is aiming to secure the upper caste vote here, in addition to support from Dalits.
Misrikh (SC-reserved):
In Misrikh, the BJP has renominated Ashok Rawat, a strong incumbent who previously won as a BSP candidate in 2004 and 2009.
Despite limited SP presence in this seat, OBCs—comprising Yadavs, Kurmis, Gadariyas, Kaachhis, and Kahars—are pivotal, especially with the Dalit vote divided.
Sitapur:
The BJP’s candidate in Sitapur is Rajesh Verma, the sitting MP. The main opponents include Rakesh Rathore from the SP and Mahendra Yadav from the BSP, both former BJP MLAs.
OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims constitute a significant portion of the electorate here, with Kurmis being the largest OBC group.
Dhaurahra:
Dhaurahra sees the BJP fielding its two-time incumbent MP, Rekha Verma. OBCs are the dominant group here, followed by Brahmins and Dalits.
Verma faces competition from BSP candidate Shyam Kishore Awasthi, a notable local leader who switched sides from the BJP after being denied a ticket. The SP’s Anand Bhadauria, known for his association with Akhilesh, has historically performed poorly in this constituency.
Hardoi (SC-reserved):
The BJP has replaced its two-time winning MP, Anshul Verma, with Jai Prakash in Hardoi. After Dalits, the upper castes form the largest group of voters here.
SP candidate Usha Verma is relying on support from Yadavs and Muslims, while the BSP has fielded Bhimrao Ambedkar.